The Energy Transition Has a Baseload Problem. Geothermal Is the Answer.

The energy transition conversation is dominated by solar and wind. That dominance is, in part, a function of familiarity — and it is obscuring one of the most compelling and under-leveraged resources available to the developing world.

Geothermal energy is baseload power. It does not depend on sunlight, wind patterns, or favorable weather. It operates continuously, 24 hours a day, at an average capacity factor of 82% — compared to roughly 36% for onshore wind and 16% for utility-scale solar*. For nations managing chronic grid instability, that distinction is not a technical footnote. It is the difference between infrastructure that works and infrastructure that requires constant compensation.

The resource endowment is concentrated along the same volcanic corridors — the Pacific Ring of Fire, the East African Rift, the Andes — that also happen to contain some of the world's fastest-growing and most energy-insecure populations. 

What has historically constrained development is not the resource — it is the capital structure. Geothermal requires significant upfront drilling investment before subsurface output can be confirmed, which has made risk-averse institutional capital reluctant to move early. That is a solvable problem. Phased development models, blended finance structures, and government off-take agreements have already demonstrated that the risk profile can be managed in ways that work for both sovereign partners and private investors.

The opportunity is significant. The technology is proven. The need is urgent.

The question is whether the capital community is willing to look past what it already knows.

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Patronus Global is a sovereign infrastructure fund focused on geothermal energy, water, and climate-critical infrastructure across emerging markets. Enquiries from co-investors, development finance institutions, and government partners are welcomed at partner@patronusglobal.net.

*Geothermal, onshore wind, and utility-scale solar PV capacity factors: IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023, Table S1, September 2024. Global weighted averages: geothermal 82%, onshore wind ~36%, utility-scale solar PV ~16%.